Hey Pike,
I agree with your reasoning on the stats and probabilities. Well-written.
Yet, I would never stop thinking about the story of the Three Big Lies. A lie, a big lie and statistics.
I have little doubt that statistics very ultimately works. And I see every virtue in getting informed to the best of your ability about the environment you may (or may not) choose to step in.
The problem with all the facts and information is how to interpret them to your best benefit. If I know that a particular bathhouse is a dangerous spot for whatever reason, I will think twice about going there and if I choose to do so, I will double my usual levels of attention. That's all fine.
However, I must never disregard the fact that this presumption does not work the other way around, ie., that I can afford to be careless or even less careful, if I am not entering the 'red zone'. (I do not think you ever said that but am trying to emphasize this point.)
Scruffy is very right. This is so much more about your behaviour than about the environment. There is a substantial number of people on the go. There is no way on earth for me to know that the guy I messed around last night in Zurich did not come straight from the indicted bathhouse. Or that he has ever been in America at all, for that matter.
Getting to know someone is really a hardly viable alternative these days. I would stop short of placing my well-being upon the mercy of someone who has come up with a story of his life. Even if his story is true. Do we have to look into the stories of all of his previous partners and how do we go about doing that?
My bottomline: do inform yourself and make qualified decisions based upon the knowledge you have. But do not apply the laws of statistics literally. They work very well for groups and segments, strata of population or classes of objects. Their applicability to individual destiny is highly limited.
And we all agree that shit happens. And most of us here are willing to go a long way to make sure that the shit does not happen to us and those who are close to us. I cannot quite see a better working strategy. But I'd be more than happy to listen to all the other suggestions.
KD
