Dude, you are at risk for EVERYTHING -- and I do mean EVERYTHING.
That's the bottom line. End of story.
When you start talking about "what ifs" and "assume this" and "assume that," you are trying to justify what you know to be dangerous and improper behavior.
Furthermore, you cannot play the odds when it comes to unprotected sex. It DOES NOT matter WHAT the actual odds are, for many reasons:
Odds are based on studies, and, as Teva said, these are extremely limited and ALWAYS MUST INCLUDE a statistical portion of the calculations which relies SOLELY on the responses given by men -- these responses may or may not be true. In my book, that pretty much ruins the efficacy of ANY study.
Odds are also of ZERO CONSEQUENCE when the time comes that you find out you did NOT beat them! If, for example, we pluck some numbers out of the air and say that one in ten men will get HIV from being a bareback top and that five in ten men will get it from being a bareback bottom (I just made that up, by the way), does it matter if YOU are the ONE out of those ten? Not at all. You've just lost, big time.
Odds can provide false confidence, giving men the notion that because they are doing something that MAY BE safer than doing something else, they should feel secure about their practice. So then they go do it AGAIN. And AGAIN. And each time you do it -- you challenge the odds even more. Eventually... well... just how many times can you spin a roulette wheel and keep on winning?
Odds CANNOT EVER be determined accurately in this circumstance. Anyone who tells you otherwise is misinformed. Just take a look at your own post if you want to understand WHY this is true, OK? You ask about all these variables -- assuming the bottom is cleaned out, not bleeding, the penis skin is intact, the fucking is slow and easy, there's lots of lube, etc. We can add LOTS more variables to the equation, too. Does anyone have another STD that makes them more likely to get HIV? Do they even KNOW they have an STD? How often has each person done it raw? With how many other partners? What risks have their other partners taken? We're looking at a string of NEARLY infinite permutations of variables which utterly DESTROY any attempts at arriving at a definitive answer. If someone tells you there are ACCURATE odds posted, they are WRONG. You can easily FIND such tables of odds scattered all over the net -- and each and EVERY one of them is based on JUNK SCIENCE. Put your faith in this charts and graphs -- maybe you die. Maybe you don't. Your choice. What will it be?
Finally, consider the Second Law Of Thermodynamics. Seriously. This is a Universal Constant which holds true at all times and cannot be violated (except for the fact that these theories break down at the moment BEFORE the Big Bang, but that was a hell of a long time ago). This law states that the energy of a closed system moves from a state of lower entropy to higher entropy. This is "Murphy's Law," to put it into simpler terms: "If something CAN go wrong, it WILL go wrong." EVERYTHING in the Universe eventually will break down when subjected to linear time. This holds true at the subatomic level as well as on the galactic level and the Universal level. What this means is that while we cannot accurately predict everything that will happen in the Universe, we are damn sure that sooner or later, everything will break down. Our human bodies are included in this. Natural aging and subsequent death are a great example of this: your body ultimately breaks down -- the energy of your closed system becomes less and less ordered, until it no longer functions. Why rush that process, right?
Play the odds long enough, INCREASE the odds of no longer being able to BEAT the odds. Factor in all the variables and realize there is no such thing as a definitive answer to your question. Give yourself enough exposure to linear time, entropy increases; the system becomes weaker.
Look... you CAN most certainly "get away" with NEVER getting an STD. Maybe. But the fact is: you'd be an idiot if you keep trying. You already KNOW you are putting yourself at HIGH RISK. Just because you are at "lower" risk than the bottom guy doesn't mean you still are not engaging in a high risk sexual activity.
If the entire Universe will someday succumb to the Second Law of Thermodynamics (and already is), what makes YOU so special?
Dude, you're question is a GOOD one. There are no stupid questions except those that are never asked. I'm not trying to be hard on you for the sake of being an asshole -- I'm laying out the facts with blunt force here because you need to know the truth.
Lastly... when you bareback, you INCREASE the rate of entropy to the closed system (that is not really all that closed) of the gay community as a whole. You may have already spread SOMETHING to someone that you got from someone else and NONE of you even know it yet. Doesn't even have to be HIV -- you can have ANY other STD and not be aware right away.
Go to Walgreen's right now and buy some condoms, OK? Think of it as your own way of foiling Mr. Murphy.
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