Friday 14 May 2010, noon to 1 pm: Against my better judgement and my own advice to others to stay away (ha ha, doesn't that make me a fool?), I took a leisurely walk near "ground zero" this noon. It had to be a slow stroll because it was very hot today.

The BTS Skytrain is not operating on the Saladaeng/Chong Nonsi segment. I don't suppose the MRT train is stopping at Silom station either. After being closed last night, Silom Road was open to traffic again, though few vehicles ventured in. Some 80 - 90 percent of shops were closed, including most currency exchange booths. The fast food outlets, including both the McDonald's "Open 24 hours" cafes at the corner of Rama 4 and Silom and opposite Patpong, shut tight. California Wow was closed. Silom Complex remain boarded up, with barbed wire in front. An intrepid handful of foot massage places, e.g. Apsara and Paradis, were open, but clearly had no customers. Coffee Society was open with 3-4 patrons, who looked like journalists and camera crew using the space to cool off while they waited for developments.

Amazingly Rama 4 Road was also open as was Ratchadamri Road. This means people could drive alongside the Red Shirts' barricade, and I guess, they could turn into their encampment wherever there might be a gateway through their barricade.

The soldiers had pulled back, and the military lines are now along Thaniya Road, about 100 -200 metres from the Rama 4/Silom intersection, and roughly where Saladaeng station is.

At the Surawong side, Henri Dunant Road (which leads up to the Siam Paragon area) had orange-coloured traffic cones and light plastic barriers across it, but since there were neither soldiers nor police enforcing the blockade, motorbikes and even cars weaved through them. I saw a man drive up to the barrier, get out of his car and push aside one of the orange pieces, get back behind the wheel and drive through!

I don't understand the military's strategy. If they are to clear out the protesters by Monday so that school can reopen, they will need to apply more pressure than what seems to be the case. I don't mean force of arms, but the strategy of isolating the siege areas by cutting off water, and preventing deliveries of food and fuel (which is the correct strategy) has to be better enforced. There should be a "no go" buffer zone of about 50 - 100 metres on all sides of the protest area. No one should be able to enter the buffer zone. Right now, the only people not entering the buffer zone are the police and troops. Passers-by, vendors, gawkers and cute massage boys - and potential Red Shirt sympathizers - clearly can.

Sextile reported above that his DTAC phone service was restricted to "emergency calls only", but my AIS service had no such restriction, with a full strength signal to boot.

Another thing that struck me was not only that the soldiers had pulled back to leave a "free to enter" buffer zone, they were really quite few in number. Walking around Silom and Surawong, I don't think I saw more than 50 men in uniform. If the Red Shirts choose to break out of the siege, where are there enough men to stop them? That being the case, the few men, fearing being outnumbered will get panicky and be quick to resort to live ammunition.

I can't understand why the miilitary is not using an "overwhelming force" strategy, why everything looks halfhearted... unless it is intentional on the military commander's part.

However, things are extremely volatile. At breakfast, the hotel waiter told me that fighting had broken out just a few minutes (hours?) before near the Lumphini MRT station and the Suan Lum night market. This morning's newspapers also reported that at around 10 pm last night more fighting and shooting broke out, I presume near the Silom frontlines, though by then, I was safely in a taxi heading away.
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-- As I saw things at around 1412oo.hrs. the red shirts were checking all tfc. going-along Rama IV. rd. Eastwards from the DUSIT THANI HTL's. i'sect. and towards the LUMPINI NIGHT BAZAAR; in gen'l. m/cs. seemed to be allowed through but other vehs. were being turned-away.
- As for R'damri. rd. from the DT. i'sect., it's OPEN on both carriage-ways but only as far as tnn. Salasin, (wch. forms the N. boundary of LUMPINI PK.), where the usual red shirts' barricade has been erected; this is to allow vehs. entry to & egress from CHULA. HOSP'L..
- Agreed, not all that many mil'y. and/or riot-police seen out in the open; possibly thy're tucked-away and out-of-sight for the present?

-- I u'stand. that Khun Veera - a moderate leader of the red shirts - has quit the leadership and is seeking to leave the Kingdom; this will leave the hard liners MORE in control of the protesters.

-- Tee rak has just arr'd. at my appt., (141530.hrs.), all footsore & weary after having walked hither from Chan rd. - from say approx. 1M. S. of BTS. Surasak,(S5.); he told me that no 'buses. are running along Silom rd. now. In fact both of us saw a #115. 'bus., at approx. 1417oo.hrs., at the DUSIT THANI HTL. i'sect. being waved around and along Rama IV. rd.

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A well placed thai friend of mine with military contacts believes there will be a determined effort soon, and that the army expects up to 250 red fatalities.

It's likely therefore to get worse before it gets better and I for one will be staying put in Pattaya !

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-- Tee rak & I left the appt. at approx. 14193O.hrs. primarily to see what places might be OPEN for a meal?
- Along soi Than Tawan a couple of JP. girlie bars, TAWAN CLUB & INDRA MASSAGE;
- Along S'wong. rd. TARNTAWAN MASSAGE, 66PROUD MASSAGE & the PERSIAN REST'T., SARIKA CAFE., SIP REST'T. & BAVANA 24/7. CAFE./REST'T.;
- Looking at Soi T'light. many of the bars' neon signs were lit; but at that earlyish hr. not many people seen;
- Along Rama IV. rd. all were quiet;
- Approaching the former ROBINSON'S we were directed to go through the car-parking area rather than around the outside;
- Along Si Lom rd. - where there were the orange-colored & plastic barriers across the rd., some of wch. were reinforced by coils of razor-wire - all were CLOSED, except for the smaller 7/11s. & FAMILY MARTS;
- In Silom soi 6 there were MARSALA ZONE, the Ch. rest't. & LA TANA.
-- For most of the way - in fact until the soi Convent tee-junc. - we were just about the only & civilian pedestrians.

-- We supped - not too cheaply - in MARSALA ZONE.

-- Afterwards we retraced our footsteps but were stopped by the mil'y. at Silom 4 and asked not to proceed any farther;
- We walked through P. Pong 2. where possibly about half of the girlie bars were OPEN, as were FOODLAND and the next door 24/7. cafe./rest't.. I noticed that none of the TVs. was shewing any football or other sporting event, instead all were shewing a serious faced police colonel making a longish announcement & occasionally consulting his written notes;
- Looking along P. Pong 1 only some of the bars in the bldgs. either side were OPEN.
- Back in si Than Tawan TAWAN BAR had CLOSED for the night.

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Lets hope this is not right.

This morning (here in Asia) BBC report 10 dead and 100 hundred injured...

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-- Today, (15th.), forenoon tee rak & I walked along Rama IV. rd. from the Henri Dunant i'sect. towards the DUSIT THANI HTL. i'sect. & beyond.
- Roughly mid-way between the HD. i'sect. & the pedestrian o'bridge. there were the usual orange colored & plastic barriers across both carriageways.
- At the DT. 'isect. some broken bottles, bricks and suchlike in the roadway; the usual & background rhetoric from the dir'n. of the red shirts' encampment.
- Father along Rama IV. a tyre still afire & some debris scattered across the rd..
- Roughly opposite to the gateway ent'ce. to LUMPINI PK. police called to us not to progress any farther and to turn-back.

- Along Si Lom rd. roughly only the smaller 7/11s. & Family Marts were OPEN; ANKOR MASSAGE had its street door OPEN , but whether that was for business or just an airing I don't know; one small food shop was OPEN; in CP. TWR. only WATSON'S was OPEN; in UNITED CENTRE only DELIFRANCE was OPEN; a few OPEN stalls & hand-carts were seen along Si Lom rd..
- In P. Pong 2 FOODLAND & the nearby 24/7. cafe./rest't., LE BOUCHON, and only a few girlie-bars were OPEN at that time.
- We enjoyed our morning's coffees in SARIKA CAFE, along with an handful of others.
- Along Si Lom red. we noticed a couple of privately owned & orange colored #77. 'buses. running; just a few m/c. taxis, taxis. & tuk-tuks seen.
- As we left, (approx. 12nn.), we saw plenty of riot-police in the gen'l. area of the KASIKORN BANK; some were de-bussing. while others were relaxing and taking it easy - to the manner born!

-- Possibly the only one's profiting from the present sit'n. are the bottlers & suppliers of bottled & drinking water?

-- Along Rama IV. & Si Lom one could not help but notice the piles of swept-up but uncollected garbage & trash.

-- We met a farang visiting from Pattaya; his Thai companion told us that there's life along Si Lom rd. from the other side of Naras Thiwat rd. & going towards Charoen Krung.

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-- Today, (15th.), a'noon. tee rak & I walked-along soi Naras Thiwat 1.: no barker o'side. SUPER A encouraging us to enter, no boyz o'side. GOLDEN COCK, just a couple of boyz o'side. TWINKS' MASSAGE who were MORE interested in their food tha in us - mortifying, indeed!
-- Crossing-over Naras Thiwat rd. was like crossing the frontier into another land: on the one hand a part of the city in its own state of self-induced funk, and on the other where 'buses. were running, businesses & shops were OPEN and life was carrying-on quite normally.
-- We walked-along Charoen Krung.
-- Walking-back along Si Lom rd. we encountered the 1st. barriers at the i'sect. with NT. rd..
- We were stopped by some mil'y. in the area of O'REILLY'S IRISH PUB. but were allowed to proceed.
- O'side. the former ROBINSON'S a mere dozen or so on-lookers.
- K WHY MASSAGE was OPEN.
- Soi Twilight was busy setting-up for a sat. night.
- P. Pong 1. looked to be all too quiet.
- Along S'wong. rd. most of the massage parlors were OPEN .
- In soi Than Tawan TAWAN BAR was CLOSED, but INDRA MASSAGE and RAMENTAI JP. REST'T. were OPEN.

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Many thanks for these continuing reports.

Planning to be in Bangkok by Tuesday night, though considering a change from Pan Pacific to some hotel nearer Sathorn or the river. Hate to abandon Pan Pacific, though.

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