Pretty much worthless, sextile.
First, the captain of course is going to tell you "no problem, no problem". That's how he stays in business.
Second, there are a dozen or more police units -- not just the local Bangrak police -- who could show up unannounced if they wanted to. The CSD, the special Women, Children, and Youth Welfare Police, regional police, tourist police...who knows what else.
There is no way a bar the size of a postage stamp has is paying off every single unit and every single commander that has the power to do a raid. Commanders also shift around frequently, and often begin their sideline money-making ventures with a firm show of authority.
In fact, it wasn't too long ago that Nature Boy's own captain was arrested for procurement of child prostitutes for customers. It was in the papers.
Third, the cops are not always uniformed, and in fact use both plain clothed Thais as well as farang volunteers. If someone were make a specific complaint, say to the Paveena Hongsakul Foundation or similar do-gooder unit, there would be swift action regardless of any payments made to the local police.
Fourth, as noted above, the bar may have a connection at the local cop shop -- but they may not be the ones who make a surprise visit.
Anyway, we're all entitled to set our own levels of acceptable risk. It just helps to understand exactly what that risk is, and I don't want casual visitors to Thailand to have a false sense of security based on what they may have read here. It's serious business.
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